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July 2023 Outlook SA

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July 2023 outlook SA *Forecast prepared between July 1st-July 4th 2023 Review: G’Day everyone, July is now here as we mark the pivot in 2023 which is a crucial time for many however so far this growing season, the weather has been for the most part fairly kind, especially in June which went every bit to expectations and in some areas like the NW Pastoral, exceeded that. I won’t recap all the events as the first half can be found in the June update however there was a significant event with a NW cloudband and strong upper trough from June 21st-23rd where especially on the 22nd, conditions were very wet indeed through the afternoon and evening with widespread areas of rain turning into showers, heavy at times with isolated thunderstorms with a focus around the Adelaide area. Flooding occurred through the Onkaparinga and Sturt River catchments and associated crossings with a number of them going well under. One gauge at Coromandel Valley went to major flood with a very rapid wise and a nu...

Special Update SA cold front and low with rain, showers and isolated thunderstorms June 21st-22nd 2023

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Special Update SA cold front and low with rain, showers and isolated thunderstorms June 21st-22nd 2023 G’Day everyone, thought I’d whip out a special update as promised for this next system as it is still looking significant with a two pronged event which should give very handy totals to most districts and that is before the stronger front due a few days after (I’ll issue another update for that as it is quite dynamic atm and hard to pin down the synoptic shape) Meteorological Discussion: Cutting to the chase here and currently we have a strong upper-level trough standing up over the Bight which is squeezing the jetstream to the north of it. This jetstream has been actively feeding down mid-level moisture for a number of days now and is responsible for the cloudband that we are seeing over the inland of the country. At the surface a cold front is also providing a focal point for lift and that will be a focus for most of the precipitation on Thursday 22nd. Figure1: GFS 300hPa (30,000ft)...

June 2023 Update SA

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June 2023 update SA *Forecast prepared between June 15th-17th 2023 Review: G’Day everyone, hope you are keeping well as we pass the mid-June mark and I have to say it’s had almost the kitchen sink apart from snow in there first 2 weeks. Record warm, strong fronts, severe thunderstorms, record large hail for June, tornadoes, large swells, squally SW winds, coastal erosion, and localised flooding. All can be attributed to an active Longwave Trough sitting right in our window enhanced by a negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Firstly, the very warm start to the month was right up there in terms of climatological records, with numerous sites breaking all time June records. I also cannot recall the last time when we had 20C temperatures here in Adelaide at Midnight and noticed this on two occasions with warm NE to N winds advecting warmth from well inland. This warmth was mostly driven by a very strong ridge extending north up the eastern seaboard into the Coral Sea and it did not move. Th...