June 2023 Update SA

June 2023 update SA

*Forecast prepared between June 15th-17th 2023

Review:

G’Day everyone, hope you are keeping well as we pass the mid-June mark and I have to say it’s had almost the kitchen sink apart from snow in there first 2 weeks. Record warm, strong fronts, severe thunderstorms, record large hail for June, tornadoes, large swells, squally SW winds, coastal erosion, and localised flooding. All can be attributed to an active Longwave Trough sitting right in our window enhanced by a negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Firstly, the very warm start to the month was right up there in terms of climatological records, with numerous sites breaking all time June records. I also cannot recall the last time when we had 20C temperatures here in Adelaide at Midnight and noticed this on two occasions with warm NE to N winds advecting warmth from well inland. This warmth was mostly driven by a very strong ridge extending north up the eastern seaboard into the Coral Sea and it did not move. The blocked high (by traffic upstream) kept directing warm and increasingly moist NE to N winds for an extended period of time into SA. June 3rd stood out as the warmest of them all with 36 Max temperature records being broken across SA and NSW, but we also saw these newly set records challenged again on the 6th ahead of that large upper trough. The 4th was also very warm! Notable locations that set new or equalled June Max temperature records include: Moomba 30.8C

Port Augusta 29.6C

Yunta 26C

Tibooburra 29.6C

Kadina 26.1C (equalled) White Cliffs 29.5C

Broken Hill 28C

Ivanhoe 27.1C

Cape Borda 20.8C

Off the bat these may not seem that special but to get such warmth in June, generally the second coldest month of the year is very difficult. To get it on one day alone is impressive but for 2-3days (and nights) is as impressive as I have seen and eclipses early 2005 from the warmest start to winter I can remember.

Next following all this warmth, we had the strong upper trough which utilised the warmth and moisture fed in by those winds off the Coral Sea to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms, with multiple severe thunderstorms with large hail and localised flash flooding. The lightning rates that I witnessed in the early hours of the 7th across Adelaide were comfortably the most frequent I have ever seen in June, beating the previous high standards of June 10th 2005 and also a period in early June 1995 where 3-4 consecutive nights of spring like thunderstorms occurred. It would have certainly not looked out of place in mid -November and numerous reports of flash flooding and heavy falls occurred through the Adelaide Metro in the early hours of the 7th.

The system was not done however with a slowing of the cold front during the afternoon allowing storms to re-develop further west and as a result giving Adelaide and more so the Hills a third dose of storms with golf ball hail in Mt.Barker but also numerous reports of 2-3cm stones which is about what was expected. Strong thunderstorms then developed across the Riverland and Mallee and moved into VIC with one becoming supercellular and dropping a tornado south of Mildura which also was expected though the favoured area further south across the SE Districts remained capped and had to rely on the activity from the Mt.Lofty Ranges breaking it, however by the time it did, the low level wind shear weakened resulting in messier but still severe thunderstorms with one particularly strong one through areas SW of Tintinara and up towards the Cooke Plains with large hail being recorded. Another area of suspected tornado damage occurred on some farms and to trees about 5km SW of Frances in the Lower SE with large gums being stripped of foliage and having limbed snapped/twisted off along a 100m wide damage path. Good heavy falls were reported near Bordertown up to 55mm. The last special update for this system I mentioned this in relation to the jet streak and upper trough being so strong and favourable: “The tight gradient between the two is simply accelerating the flow aloft and when this happens on the leading edge of an upper trough of this size we get severe weather, almost without fail.” Whilst we never want to see severe weather cause damage etc, it is good to at least back this theory up as the number 1 indicator (for me) to fore warn of severe weather and everytime I see a similar setup, I will be sure to mention it so you understand the importance of this and the expected weather to follow (and impacts).

Now just the other day on the evening of the 12th we had a cold front with more showers and thunderstorms cross the southern parts of the state. The intensity was nowhere near the previous system, but still large hail occurred across some northern suburbs of Adelaide in the order of 10cent coin sized. Extraordinary to get another system bring extremely unusually large hail for winter a few days after the previous. Lapse rates were quite steep in the mid-levels with sufficient CAPE (Convection Availailable Potential Energy) and a slow and steady frontal trigger. A cold pool then followed which was quite electrically active with strong cold air thunderstorms chiefly south of about Adelaide, with the McLaren Vale and greater southern Fleurieu Peninsula receiving multiple rounds of these often going over the same area with lots of small hail, local thunder and intense rainfall. Overnight totals of 30-40mm were recorded in Yankallila, Inman Valley, Willunga and up to McLaren Vale, however futher north, barely any rainfall was recorded due to the west-east nature of the cold air field and a drier more stable westerly flow present across most areas north of about Gawler and especially so for the Upper North where so far, June has not been that wet at all. This is all playing right into the punch line I have been driving home about being south of Goyder's Line this year. The good news at least is June should finish fairly well for a majority of districts.

Meteorological Discussion:

The next two weeks will be quite wet, especially so about the southern coasts, Lower SE and Mt.Lofty Ranges - there is no other way to say it, so I’ll be frank off the bat. The mid-month ‘lull’ that I have expected is already just about over and has only been more noticeable with northern extent with a brief bit of high pressure and more west-east systems so less penetration there. We have had an active longwave trough in our longitude with the last round of fronts and severe weather however this same longwave is wobbling back on itself and will re-invigorate with even more gusto than earlier, certainly in terms of the number of systems, the amount of wind and the overall totals as well as inland penetration. The spring like severe thunderstorm activity will be less although I have an eye on one system around the 21st/22nd that could be close. In any sense, a good old fashioned winter pattern to finish June with a barrage of cold fronts, some strong and that should put us on track to meet the expected average to above average rainfall for all districts east of the Eyre Peninsula, which may still just fall short in the north but further south and near the coasts I think will exceed the forecast come June 30th. I’ll explain a little more in the climate drivers' section about why this month has been out the box and wetter than many agencies have forecast (and would you believe are still forecasting which is as good as banging your head against a diamond coated wall)

So, we start with the next cold front which is on the lead edge of a broad upper trough associated with the Longwave Trough that is going to park itself in our window for a good 2 weeks. This cold front is moving steadily in across the Bight and will be due to cross the western end of KI by about 3am and into Adelaide roughly around 10:30am on the 17th bringing with it a band of showers, which may well tend to rain at times given the mid-level cloudband that will accompany the front with a rainband more likely across the SE Districts. Fresh to strong N to NW winds are already occurring ahead of this front as I write this on the 16th with a gust of 83km/hr recorded at Cape Willoughby so far. Winds will moderate on and behind the front although colder W to SW winds will establish across the agricultural areas with scattered cold air showers to follow the frontal cloudband. Isolated small hail and cold air thunder is possible south of KI and down near the Lower SE Coastline.

Shower activity should become more isolated early on 18th and contract out of areas north of about Gawler however not for long as we see a convergence once again ahead of another cold front moving In from the SW later on the 18th so showers will increase from about late morning and then further as the frontal band passes over. This front will lack punch and weaken out though the onshore flow combined with a weak trough will keep drizzly showers and orographic induced precipitation lingering well into the 19th.

A new high should then move across the state through the 20th however due to the rapid progression after the prior cold air, temperatures will be quite cold still. It is possible with this to then see a warm front dive SE across the Bight which may generate some mid-level showers on the frontal boundary, clipping the Eyre Peninsula coast and KI as it does so but this is still a little uncertain – more for interest sakes in any case than of any use.

The system due next will likely have a lot more upper-level support and stronger dynamics at play, with a little warmer air ahead of it and bigger upper divergence to use. Northerly winds will freshen in the west once again late on 20st with mild to even warm conditions inland. Isolated showers and thunderstorms should develop in the far west and NW of the state, ahead of that broad upper trough and increasing jet streak across the interior. A deep low will form within the longwave south of the Bight and be present with dumbelling arms for multiple days. These showers and thunderstorms, will extend SE and increase through the early hours of the 21st at this stage ahead of a strong cold front which will extend steadily eastwards across the state during the afternoon and evening, adding further lift to the airmass ahead of it with showers and thunderstorms thickening into areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms. There may be a squall line or more intense line of precipitation marking the cold front, depending how strong and well-formed it is as it crosses the agricultural areas – but this is too far away to be specific with just yet, but a special update is likely for this system. The cold front will move east of the state by the 22nd but colder air will follow with scattered showers and isolated cold air thunder as a deep and long-fetched SW airstream becomes established across the state. Large swells will push up once again with this system.

A strong cold front should then rapidly slide up the newly created SW stream and cross the state on the 23rd with good penetration and a broad unstable cold airmass behind it. A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms should mark the front which looks to be intensifying all the way in as a polar jet develops on the western side of the longwave. This is where favourable frontogenesis occurs. Widespread showers, some heavy with small hail and isolated cold air thunder should extend across the agricultural areas with squally cold SW winds. This activity should continue into the 24th although the air will be a little less unstable.

Further cold fronts with significant amounts of cold air behind them are likely to barrel and sling up from the SW from the 26th or so as the longwave gradually shifts eastwards. Squally showers, small hail and even inland rain areas along the jetstream are possible. Further fronts are likely with some quieter breaks in between until the end of the month.

I had July pegged as a drier month and I think this is still looking the case with the colder, drier air pushed up from June being part of what begins to subside in July with an increase in high pressure. It may however take time to establish as the large longwave will only move eastwards slowly. The further south one is for July, the less impact I think will occur from a lack of rainfall, but this is a month where we do need to watch out for frost.

Climate Drivers

The Pacific has seen only slow changes since the last update 2 weeks ago but there certainly hasn’t been any regression in the El Nino pattern The main take home is the warmth at 50m depth in the far east which is up to 6C above average which is significant. However, further west we have not seen the expanding spike of warm water just yet as we are still early in the overall development phase and thus more important ocean to atmosphere connection once established – that feedback doesn’t begin instantly. I expect a slow but steady increase in that warm water, moving to the surface with the ‘spike’ along the equator through later winter and into early spring.

Figure 1: Pacific sub-surface vertical cross-section showing +6C anomalies at 50m in far E – source BoM http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=Sea-sub%E2%80%93surface

Now the Indian is interesting, because whilst we have a developing positive IOD, the current scenario doesn’t reflect that in the atmosphere with a good amount of convection across Indonesia as well as moisture feeding down into WA from Java ready to make NW cloudbands for extra rainfall here and that window looks to be maximised whilst we have a very active westerly belt courteous of the Long Wave Trough. The western Indian does remain warm, but a lot of the Indian is indeed warm, with a huge area over the Central Southern Indian remaining quite warm. The eastern Indian closer to Australia however is cooler but only a little and at this stage it isn’t significant enough. I expect that to increase slowly as we move into August and September with the positive IOD signature revealing itself then but before then we have a lot of warm water that will be a source for fronts and troughs to utilise, especially those coming out from SW of WA.

Now the main reason why we have so many fronts and a high reaching longwave trough is due to the SAM going negative. When a SAM goes negative in summer it brings drier weather and stops tropical air feeding in however when it does this in winter, we see the active westerly belt shift north with larger Southern Ocean lows and wetter conditions across Southern Australia. But of course, why is it going negative? Where is this terribly dry June that you may have seen forecast by various agencies?

Well in short, when we see an El Nino or more to the point developing El Nino conditions like we have now, there is an increase in convergence further east in the Pacific with a weakening of trade winds. The supressed westerly belt from 3 years of La Nina like conditions finally gets to show its hand once the earth tilts north for the winter solstice without the overbearing easterlies across the mainland anymore. The high-pressure belt doesn’t sit there as readily allowing the westerly belt to expand and sometimes, after a long period of suppression, it can expand vigourously and split the usual 5 long wave nodes that make up the westerly belt into 4. So, the energy is more concentrated and right now this is right in our window and has reached north enough now to start impacting the tropics. Furthermore, because the El Nino and Positive IOD have not yet occurred, we still have moisture leftover from the previous La Nina – there hasn’t been a huge cleanout yet. The expansion south of the Hadley cell in late April and May was the transition from the La Nina to the dam wall essentially of what we have now – albeit a mild Indian summer but overall, across Australia it did get drier. The Hadley cell now has contracted quite a bit with the downwelling shifting back west to the Central Indian for the time being with all the driving of our weather being dictated by the expanded polar vortex (the westerly belt/negative SAM). This is what winter ‘should’ be like in an ideal world. A more advanced Positive IOD pattern or El Nino would simply see less moisture available to be used and as a result we would see fronts getting less moisture in ahead of them and purely be sourced from the Southern Ocean. They are still however vigourous and this is what we can expect moving later into winter and spring – fronts and troughs but less moisture being available for them, drier winds. The highs setting up in between these fronts will also have more strength and thus frost risk will increase.

Figure 2: Curret SST anomalies – source Tropical Tidbits https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Now moving onto the MJO we have nothing terribly exciting to talk about here with the influence being at a minimum for this time of the year. The current weak impulse is over South America and should waffle east by very late June and into early July but have little impact on our weather.

Districts:

Eyre Peninsula

Freshening N winds ahead of a cold front due near dawn on 17th with a band of showers. Isolated thunderstorms possible near the tip of Lower Eyre Peninsula with scattered showers to follow in the afternoon in an onshore flow. Showers becoming isolated later 17th before increasing later 18th and into 19th with another weakening front, chiefly about Lower Eyre Peninsula. New high moving through by late 19th and early 20th Weak warm front 20th diving through Bight with perhaps a narrow band of mid-level showers. Freshening N winds with milder conditions later 20th before isolated showers and thunderstorms develop late evening ahead of a strong upper trough and cold front on the 21st. Showers increasing through 21st with isolated thunderstorms, especially ahead of and near the cold front. Colder, unstable air in wake of front later 21st and into 22nd with scattered showers and isolated cold air thunderstorms, more frequent about the west and southern coasts of Eyre Pen. Stronger cold front due mid-afternoon 23rd as deeper and longer fetched W to SW flow established with a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Showers may tend to a band of rain. Squally cold air showers, isolated thunderstorms and small hail to follow, most likely again across the southern half of the Peninsula. Local heavy falls also possible near the Southern and western coasts. Yet another front likely around 26th with a further spate of showers and colder air in a west to SW airstream. Rainfall till end of month 30-40mm generally decreasing to 20-30mm in the north and further down to 10-20mm in the far NE. Totals increasing about the Lower Eyre Peninsula in the order of 40-60mm with localised heavier dumps possible to 70-75mm.

Upper North

Freshening N winds ahead of a cold front due early to mid-afternoon on 17th with a band of showers. Isolated showers to follow in colder air. Isolated light showers on 18th chiefly about elevated terrain ahead of a weakening front due on 19th with a slower moving band of light showers. Weak warm front 20th diving through Bight with perhaps a narrow band of mid-level showers in the south only. Freshening N winds with milder conditions later 20th before isolated showers and thunderstorms develop from early 21st ahead of a strong upper trough and cold front. Showers increasing through 21st and possibly tending to rain areas at times with isolated thunderstorms, especially ahead of and near the cold front. Scattered showers behind the front before these become isolated early into 22nd. Colder air pushing up through day on 22nd to increase showers temporarily before clearing in the evening. Stronger cold front due late evening on 23rd as deeper and longer fetched W to SW flow becomes established with a band of showers. Squally W to SW flow to follow with isolated showers. Yet another front likely around 26th with areas of patchy light rain out of the NW and a further spate of showers further south with colder air in a west to SW airstream. Rainfall till end of month 25-35mm generally decreasing to 15-20mm in the north and further down tom 10-15mm off back of ranges. Isolated heavier falls about elevated terrain and in areas where streams set up in SW flows in the order of 35-50mm.

Lower North

Freshening N winds ahead of a cold front due early afternoon on 17th with a band of showers. Isolated to scattered showers to follow in colder air. Isolated light showers on 18th chiefly about elevated terrain ahead of a weakening front due on 19th with a slower moving band of light showers. Weak warm front 20th diving through Bight with perhaps a narrow band of mid-level showers in the south only. Freshening N winds with milder conditions later 20th before isolated showers and thunderstorms develop from early 21st ahead of a strong upper trough and cold front. Showers increasing through 21st and tending to rain areas at times with isolated thunderstorms, especially ahead of and near the cold front. Scattered showers behind the front before these become isolated early into 22nd. Colder air pushing up through day on 22nd to increase showers with perhaps an isolated afternoon thunderstorm temporarily before clearing in the evening. Stronger cold front due late evening 23rd as deeper and longer fetched W to SW flow becomes established with a band of

showers. Squally cold air showers, isolated thunderstorms and small hail to follow in the south with isolated showers in the north. Yet another front likely around 26th with areas of patchy light rain in the north followed by further spate of showers and colder air in a west to SW airstream. Rainfall till end of month 30-45mm generally decreasing to 15-30mm off back of ranges. Isolated heavier falls about elevated terrain and in areas where streams set up in SW flows in the order of 45-60mm.

Yorke Peninsula

Freshening N winds ahead of a cold front due near mid-morning about the foot and late morning in the north on 17th with a band of showers. Scattered showers to follow in the afternoon in an onshore flow, more isolated in the north. Shower activity becoming more isolated later 17th before increasing later 18th and into 19th with another weakening front with a slower moving band of showers. New high moving through by late 19th and early 20th. Weak warm front 20th diving through Bight with perhaps a narrow band of mid-level showers, chiefly near the foot. Freshening N winds with milder conditions later 20th before isolated showers and thunderstorms develop early 21st ahead of a strong upper trough and cold front. Showers increasing through 21st tending to areas of rain at times with possible isolated thunderstorms, especially ahead of and near the cold front. Colder, unstable air in wake of front later 21st and more so into 22nd with scattered showers and isolated cold air thunderstorms. Stronger cold front due late afternoon early evening 23rd as deeper and longer fetched W to SW flow established with a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Showers may tend to a band of rain. Squally cold air showers, isolated thunderstorms and small hail to follow, chiefly in the south with more isolated activity in the north. Yet another front likely around 26th with a further spate of showers and colder air in a west to SW airstream. Rainfall till end of month 35-45mm generally decreasing to 20-30mm in the north. Totals increasing about the foot of the Peninsula in the order of 40-60mm.

Kangaroo Island

Freshening N winds ahead of a cold front due in the early hours before dawn on 17th with a band of showers and

onshore flow. Shower activity becoming more isolated later 17th before increasing steadily to become frequent later on 18th and into 19th with another weakening front with a slower moving band of showers. New high moving through by late 19th and early 20th. Weak warm front 20th diving through Bight with a narrow band of mid-level showers. Freshening N winds with milder conditions later 20th before isolated showers and thunderstorms develop early 21st ahead of a strong upper trough and cold front. Showers increasing through 21st and possibly tending to areas of rain at times with possible isolated thunderstorms, especially ahead of and near the cold front. Colder, unstable air in wake of front later 21st and more so into 22nd with scattered showers and isolated cold air thunderstorms, heavy at times. Stronger cold front due mid-afternoon 23rd as deeper and longer fetched W to SW flow established with a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Showers may tend to a band of rain. Squally cold air showers, isolated thunderstorms and small hail to follow. Yet another front likely around 26th with a further spate of showers and colder air in a west to SW airstream. Rainfall till end of month 40-50mm generally decreasing to 30-40mm in the east. Totals increasing about the western end of the island in the order of 50-70mm with possible localised totals to 75-80mm.

Adelaide Plains

Freshening N winds ahead of a cold front due early afternoon on 17th with a band of showers. Isolated to scattered showers to follow in colder air. Isolated light showers on 18th increasing in frequency in the south ahead of a weakening front due early on 19th with another slower moving band of showers. Weak warm front 20th diving through Bight with perhaps a narrow band of mid-level showers. Freshening N winds with milder conditions later 20th before isolated showers and thunderstorms develop from early 21st ahead of a strong upper trough and cold front. Showers increasing through 21st and tending to rain areas at times with possible isolated thunderstorms, especially ahead of and near the cold front. Scattered showers behind the front before these become isolated early into 22nd. Colder air pushing up through day on 22nd to increase showers with perhaps an isolated afternoon thunderstorm temporarily before clearing in the evening. Stronger cold front due evening of 23rd as deeper and longer fetched W to SW flow becomes established with a band of showers, possibly tending to rain areas. Squally cold air showers, isolated thunderstorms and small hail to follow, chiefly in the south. Yet another front likely around t6th with a further spate of showers and colder air in a west to SW airstream. Rainfall till end of month 35-50mm generally decreasing to 25-35mm towards the western suburbs and outer plains. Isolated heavier falls about foothills to 60mm and in areas where streams set up.

Mt.Lofty Ranges

Freshening N winds ahead of a cold front due early afternoon on 17th with a band of showers. Isolated to scattered showers to follow in colder air. Isolated showers on 18th increasing in frequency and intensity about the southern Fleurieu coasts and ranges ahead of a weakening front due early on 19th with another slower moving band of showers. Weak warm front 20th diving through Bight with perhaps a narrow band of mid-level showers. Freshening N winds with milder conditions later 20th before isolated showers and thunderstorms develop from early 21st ahead of a strong upper trough and cold front. Showers increasing through 21st and tending to rain areas at times with possible isolated thunderstorms, especially ahead of and near the cold front. Scattered showers behind the front before these become isolated early into 22nd. Colder air pushing up through day on 22nd to increase showers, some locally heavy with perhaps an isolated afternoon thunderstorm temporarily before clearing in the evening. Stronger cold front due evening of 23rd as deeper and longer fetched W to SW flow becomes established with a band of showers, possibly tending to rain areas. Squally cold air showers, isolated thunderstorms and small hail to follow, chiefly in the south. Yet another front likely around 26th with a further spate of showers and colder air in a west to SW airstream. Rainfall till end of month 40-60mm generally decreasing to 25-35mm towards the northern ranges and further down to 20-25mm off the eastern slopes in rain shadow. Scattered heavier totals of 60-80mm and isolated localised falls about known wet spots up to 100mm.

Riverland/Mallee

Freshening N winds ahead of a cold front due early afternoon in the Mallee and mid to late afternoon for the Riverland on 17th with a band of showers. Isolated showers to follow about the SW Mallee in colder air. Isolated light showers developing later on 18th chiefly about the SW/S Mallee ahead of a weakening front due on 19th with a slower moving band of light showers. Weak warm front 20th diving through Bight with perhaps a narrow band of mid-level showers towards the southern Mallee only. Freshening N winds with milder conditions later 20th before areas of patchy rain and possible embedded thunder develop from early 21st ahead of a strong upper trough and cold front. Rain easing to scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms later 21st and into early 22nd. Colder air pushing up through day on 22nd to increase showers with perhaps an isolated afternoon thunderstorm temporarily before clearing in the evening. Stronger cold front due late evening 23rd to early 24th as deeper and longer fetched W to SW flow becomes established with a band of showers, more isolated about the Riverland with rain shadowing. Squally cold air showers, isolated thunderstorms and small hail to follow in the south of the Mallee with isolated showers only for the remainder and Riverland. Yet another front likely around 26th with areas of patchy light rain possible about the Riverland out of the NW and a further spate of showers and colder air for the Mallee in a west to SW airstream. Rainfall till end of month 10-15mm generally about the Riverland though decreasing potentially down to 7-10mm in localised pockets in the NW. Isolated 20mm falls should the potential rain on 26th eventuate. The Mallee generally should see a little more in the order of 15-25mm decreasing to 10-15mm in dry holes with strong shadowing. Localised heavier totals in the south broadly up to about 30mm.

Upper SE

Freshening N winds ahead of a cold front due early afternoon on 17th with a band of showers with possible isolated thunderstorms near the Coorong coast. Showers may tend to rain in the south. Isolated to scattered showers to follow in colder air. Isolated showers on 18th increasing in frequency in the south and about the Coorong coast ahead of a weakening front due early on 19th with another slower moving band of showers, again possibly tending to light rain areas at times. Weak warm front 20th diving through Bight with perhaps a narrow band of mid-level showers if anything at all. Freshening N winds with milder conditions later 20th before areas of patchy rain develop after sunrise on 21st ahead of a strong upper trough and cold front. Rain easing to showers later 21st with possible isolated thunderstorms, especially ahead of and near the cold front. Scattered showers behind the front before these become isolated early into 22nd. Colder air pushing up through day on 22nd with further scattered showers with perhaps an isolated afternoon thunderstorm in the north temporarily before clearing in the evening. Stronger cold front due late evening of 23rd or early 24th as deeper and longer fetched W to SW flow becomes established with a band of showers, possibly tending to rain areas. Squally cold air showers, isolated thunderstorms and small hail to follow, chiefly in the south and west. Yet another front likely around 26th with a further spate of showers and colder air in a west to SW airstream. Rainfall till end of month 30-40mm generally decreasing to 20-30mm towards the Mallee. Isolated heavier falls towards the Lower SE and Coorong coast up to 50mm.

Lower SE

Freshening N winds ahead of a cold front due mid-morning on 17th with a band of showers with possible isolated thunderstorms near the coast. Showers may tend to rain areas at times. Scattered showers to follow in colder air with blustery conditions. Showers on 18th increasing in frequency ahead of a weakening front due later 18th with another slower moving band of showers, again possibly tending to light rain areas at times. Scattered colder air showers to follow on 19th. Weak warm front 20th diving through Bight with perhaps a narrow band of mid-level showers if anything at all. Freshening N winds with milder conditions later 20th before areas of rain develop after lunch on 21st ahead of a strong upper trough and cold front. Rain easing to isolated showers later 21st with a possible thunderstorm near the coast. Colder air pushing up through day on 22nd with further scattered showers with perhaps an isolated afternoon thunderstorm in the north temporarily before clearing in the evening. Stronger cold front due late evening of 23rd or early 24th as deeper and longer fetched W to SW flow becomes established with a band of showers, possibly tending to rain areas. Squally cold air showers, isolated thunderstorms and small hail to follow. Yet another front likely around 26th with a further spate of showers and colder air in a west to SW airstream. Rainfall till end of month 40-50mm generally decreasing to 30-40mm towards the Upper SE. Isolated heavier falls towards the coast up to 60-80mm.

Western VIC

Freshening N winds ahead of a cold front due early to mid-afternoon about the SW district on 17th with a band of showers with possible isolated thunderstorms near the coast. Showers may tend to rain areas at times. Scattered showers to follow in colder air with blustery conditions over the SW District. Showers on 18th increasing in frequency about the SW District ahead of a weakening front due later 18th with another slower moving band of showers, again possibly tending to light rain areas at times. Shower activity less substantial over the northern Wimmera and Mallee. Scattered colder air showers to follow on 19th though once again chiefly south of the Mallee. Freshening N winds with milder conditions later 20th before areas of light patchy rain develop after lunch on 21st ahead of a strong upper trough and cold front. Rain easing to isolated showers into 22nd, chiefly afternoon before clearing after dark. Stronger cold front due early 24th as deeper and longer fetched W to SW flow becomes established with a band of showers, possibly tending to rain areas. Squally cold air showers, isolated thunderstorms and small hail to follow over the SW District with shower activity more isolated north of here. Windy conditions throughout, however. Yet another front likely around 26th with areas of rain about the Mallee and a further spate of showers and colder air in a west to SW airstream further south. Rainfall till end of month 30-40mm generally decreasing to 15-20mm towards the Mallee Isolated heavier falls towards the coast up to 40-60mm.

Final Notes

• Active westerly belt to finish month with multiple cold fronts and troughs dumbelling around broad low-pressure areas south of mainland contained within active Longwave Trough
• Enhanced rainfall for western slopes of ranges and exposed coastal fringes
• Potential inland rainband as well on 26th if jetstream can be squeezed hard enough
• El Nino and Positive IOD still in formation, and expected to develop later winter and early spring
• South of Goyder's line all things considered should get enough rainfall by end of growing season however tougher conditions to finish north of it
• July-September still looking like below average rainfall overall but still sufficient fronts in south, some vigourous
• Increased frosts in July in wake of cold air late June

Also just briefly, will be taking some leave from work through late July and August to hopefully make a better dent into getting a subscription service up and running – apologies for the delay, however all updates and information will continue free until established! Please send feedback to your contacts where possible, always happy to hear and always appreciative of each and everyone of you who take the time to read the blog/update.

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Happy Farming and Cheers from The Weatherman

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