Quick Update SA NEW Cloudband rain event June 28th-29th 2024

Quick Update SA NW Cloudband rain event June 28-29th 2024

*Forecast issued afternoon of June 28th 2024


G’Day one and all, as promised a quick look at this Cloudband event. I have to say it’s not formed out quite as well or cleanly as I would have hoped given it has split but given the last event overperformed a little for some parts of the Mallee, Mid North, and N YP, the urgency for this event is a little less. However, for those that missed out last event just a bit further north, it is very urgent indeed.


Meteorological Discussion

I will keep this part very short but essentially we have that expected NW CLoudband I mentioned in the Mid-Month update and for the most part the type of system is going to occur but the main difference is the whole system has now split with the main cut off lows stuck over WA with a new ridge undercutting it. Showers and thunderstorms are occurring within this low after some heavy falls near Perth yesterday when the system was fresher.

Further SE a cold front is moving up on the eastern side of the large new high, the strong ridge to the west helping ‘lift’ it up to the NNE swiftly. When this cold front meets the current NW Cloudband, it will undercut it and enhance rain areas along and immediately ahead of the frontal boundary. This should be maximised by the early hours of the 29th. There may be some brief local heavy falls within the frontal zone. This main focus is for the southern coastline and adjacent inland of the Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula, all of KI, the southern parts of the Fleurieu Peninsula and Mt.Lofty Ranges and also the Lower SE District. Further north, the mid-level NW Cloudband will continue to stream rapidly SE before getting pushed out by the cold front. All of the activity will thin out and weaken as the cold front pushes NE with rain areas clearing through the day on the 29th with only lighter falls extending to areas north of about Clare. The Upper North once again will be light on for activity.

Figure 1: Satellite on 28/06/24 @ 1750ACST showing NW Cloudband with cold front located south of the Bight – source Weatherzone

There are the hints however of a significant cut off upper low that may grab some QLD moisture in early July which lines up with the back end of the wetter period and this could be a better system for areas that are missing the frontal systems.

Rainfall

Rainfall from this event look variable however closer to the southern coastline, it becomes more consistent and significant.

Generally, south of a line from Cummins to Adelaide to Naracoorte 15-25mm should be standard with scattered 30mm totals. Isolated 40mm falls are possible about the Mt.Lofty Ranges as well as in any convergent lines over the Southern Fleurieu, Kangaroo Island and the lower tip of Eyre Peninsula.

North of this line totals will reduce to 8-15mm with a further reduction down to less than 5mm north of about Port Broughton to Clare to Loxton.

Link to temporary blog website: https://farmweathersa.blogspot.com/

Happy Farming and Cheers from The Weatherman

*Note – For interest only, all thoughts are of The Weatherman and may not be reproduced without my consent.

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