September 2023 outlook SA
September 2023 Outlook SA
*Forecast prepared between September 1st-5th 2023
Review:
G’Day everyone, hope you are keeping well as Spring has now sprung! A time where many things come to life including the main heat engine of Australia – something I will discuss further down. I hope you all had a good Father’s Day as well. I also must apologise for the lateness of this update. I snapped a ball joint as well as destroyed the driveshaft among other things on the car on Father’s Day whilst making a turn and it’s been a busy process fixing that! But firstly, let's have a quick recap on what August delivered.
It certainly has been broadly quite dry but with some very handy and well-timed rains through that mid-section of the month, which was our best window for rainfall and by and large it delivered quite well, especially so for areas in the Lower North, chiefly near the ranges and elevated terrain and also Northern Yorke Peninsula. Other areas in the Eastern and Southern Mallee and Upper SE did fairly well too but things were patchy and did drop off north of there.
The most notable event was a rainband ahead of an upper trough which came through late on the 16th followed by some very impressive streams, chiefly running up the Spencer Gulf and driving frequent showers, some heavy at times into the Lower North, Northern YP and SW and southern portions of the Upper North with a little extra assistance from the higher terrain in this area. The rainband ahead of the showers however was most impressive and focused across Northern YP, and the SW portions of the Lower North with the Bute-Snowtown area especially doing really well. I made mention of the 3.8mm month to date rainfall Snowtown had last update mid-month. With 24mm to 9am following that rainband and a further 13mm from stream showers the next day, it was a remarkable turnaround with Snowtown finishing the month with an above average 48.6mm.
Whilst some frosty nights were recorded between the 6th-8th, the 11th and again around the 15th-16th, the majority of the impacts from these was confined to the Riverland and Mallee with a tempering of the minimums with westward extent.
A quick look at the final August charts below:
The month as a whole featured below average rainfall across the greater agricultural areas with some isolated very much below average rainfall. There were some near average falls shown by the percentages chart over the Mallee and also portions of Northern Yorke Pen and the Lower North (with the Bute-Snowtown area events really standing out here). The far west also fared better than most with closer to average falls. But overall, a pretty poor effort. Looking back at the official outlook:
“Overall, my August outlook is for average to below average rainfall for most districts but not quite to the levels of July. Areas in the Upper North, Lower North, Eyre Peninsula (chiefly northern), Riverland and Mallee are the most susceptible but also into Yorke Peninsula and the general Central Districts including Adelaide and the Mt.Lofty Ranges, although a little better here. Kangaroo Island and the SE Districts may come closer to the average. Potential pockets of very much below average rainfall are possible across the NW and NE interior, especially towards the N/NE. The far west of the state may see some average to slightly above areas from NW moisture intrusions along sliding troughs and increased Jetstream activity.”
Some hits and misses here. Broadly it was below average which was the general consensus however the areas of KI, and the SE Districts really did not get anywhere near average with fronts not being frequent enough. The Far West area was picked up as was the drier NE but a miss in the Mallee with them doing slightly better than expectations. A modest effort that hopefully can be improved on for September!
Meteorological Discussion:
Now the current situation sees a mobile pattern across the mainland with fast moving systems. Only just on Father’s Day we saw a warm day with fresh to strong N winds, which were quite dry. Isolated mid-level showers developed with the cold front behind with stream showers across the northern Yorke Peninsula and Lower North.
A weak front is approaching the coastline and will move through the southern portions of the state overnight on the 4th and into early hours of the 5th with a broken band of showers, gradually weakening as it moves eastwards. Behind this system a new high-pressure system will move through bringing fine conditions ahead of an approaching cold front and significant cold outbreak.
This front will see a low also develop behind it with a fairly tight gradient with a strengthening high to the west. This high will be stretched north-south rather than the more traditional east to west and thus will send a ridge down deep to the south. A pool of cold to very cold air aloft will then be lifted N-NE rapidly by this ridge with that surface low deepening to the S/SE of the state. Along the front itself we should see a band of showers, tending to rain overnight 6th into the 7th with colder air to follow. Showers, scattered small hail and possible isolated cold air thunder will barrel in behind the front at first from the WSW and then more from the SW to S overnight 7th and early 8th as the coldest air drives north with the surface winds perpendicular to the apex of the cold pool (upper trough). When flow is like this, the highest potential of the airmass is achieved. Snow showers are also fairly likely about higher terrain of the Lower and Upper North, notably Mt.Bryan, Hallett etc. Mt Remarkable is also possible. There is a very slight chance on Mt.Lofty if a few ducks line up with regards to timing of precipitation with cold air before sunrise on the 9th. With such cold air, driving winds with showers etc, I do expect a Sheep Graziers alert to the issued for all agricultural areas for Thursday 7th and overnight into Friday 8th
Now this is the cold outbreak that I have been expecting in September, where we get the proper cold and dry surge northwards. This air then sinks and dries out the interior before being caught up in the heat engine that is inland WA and the NT and being so dry will heat up a lot more easily with the next warmer cycle. This time however we also have the unfortunate case of a likely snap frost where the large high behind the cold air moves in quickly before the colder air has much time to clear. With the aforementioned shape being elongated north to south rather than east to west, we remove the moisture from the W/SW which usually brings those drizzly streams with cloud capping the ranges and low bases before the high clears activity. This time, we have a southerly flow which moderates rapidly as the centre of the strengthening high moves in, due in the early hours of the 9th at this stage. Given lingering streams showers are expected at least in the eastern half of the agricultural areas on the 8th, the ground may still be wet or damp when the frost occurs, increasing the amount of frost where the wet ground just freezes giving large amounts of frost on many surfaces. I do expect a very rapid drop in temperature as the sun goes down on evening of Friday the 8th. With a moderate to heavy frost developing by the morning, more so the amount rather than extreme temps, though –4C is possible in the Riverland and some low-lying valleys of the Lower and Upper North, especially around the Yongala-Orroroo areas where even –5C is not without a chance. There will be widespread 0C to –2C temperatures right across the agricultural areas with scattered –3C temps on sat 9th morning. Similarly on Saturday the 9th, after a fine day, the night will be cold with widespread frost on the morning of the 10th mostly in the moderate range, but some heavy pockets are also likely with –3C to –4C temps again feasible in the coldest spots with a more general 1 to –1C.
I know this is a critical time with heads emerging but unfortunately it does look like a bad couple of nights. There will potentially be a less severe third night with further slight to moderate frost on the 11th, more likely East/SE of the ranges and Western VIC.
This strong high will continue to strengthen as it moves east slowly over the days after, with a 1043hPa or so centre near Tasmania or there abouts. The strength of this high can be directly related to the very cold air aloft just prior so the sinking of this cold, dry air will essentially fuel and re-enforce this high, more pronounced due to a lack of zonal flow with a meridional north-south flow, that really enhances the ridging of this high right up the QLD coastline and right down beyond Tassie putting a block on any fronts to the west. It will also then allow the Kimberly heat low to intensify after which then builds in the weeks ahead with many likely intrusions of warmer and hotter air to the SE later in the month and furthermore in October. November will be a very hot month but increasingly thundery with severe thunderstorm potential but more of the higher based variety.
Overall, for September, I expect average to below average rainfall. Larger areas of below to very much below average rain are likely over the NW and NE Pastorals with a lack of infeeds. The broader agricultural areas will come in mostly just below average with most rain falling in the expected cold outbreak with only weaker systems likely till later in the month where some trough activity may bring small accumulations. The greatest risk for below to well below average rainfall for the agricultural areas remains across the Eyre Peninsula and the Riverland and down into the Northern Mallee. Western VIC should grade from average towards the south to well below for the Mallee. The greatest chance for average or even slightly above if there is any is over the Fleurieu Peninsula and parts of the Mt.Lofty Ranges but this is slim. If this cold outbreak was not on the cards, then it could have been quite a horrible month indeed so at least it has dialed back a little on the extremely levels. October could well take that mantle now if the heat kicks in. Something to watch closely now.
Climate Drivers:
The Pacific has shown only slow movement in the last two weeks with a bit of ebbing and flowing back and forth but overall, a very slight move closer to an El Nino. It is essentially very close now in the oceans with warmer in the east, cooler in the west with regard to the expected anomalies, but still not quite cool enough around Australia yet, though there has been some cooling recently north of New Caledonia and around portions of PNG, chiefly to the west. Trade winds are slightly below average but not by a great deal. Whilst we have seen some Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB’s), they haven’t been significant enough to rapidly advance the developing El Nino. Nevertheless, it is still heading that way and should be declared in my opinion by October.
The Indian has made significant inroads towards a Positive IOD with a rapid warm up in the Western Indian combined with a pool of cooler anomalies in the Eastern Indian which is right in the classical spot off Western Sumatra and below Java, a sure sign of cold-water upwelling and a full circulation from the western basin to eastern basin. Trade winds have been strongly offshore across Sumatra in recent weeks which has really begun to drive this.
The current value of the IOD is +1.05 which is well into the positive range making it just into the moderate category now. I expect a further intensification to around +1.5 to perhaps +1.7C before gradually waning. This will be a main driver for us in spring with below average rainfall, large diurnal temperature fluctuations and windy systems.
The SAM has been generally neutral in recent weeks however is briefly touching negative territory as some strong lows pass below the mainland. It should then fluctuate from negative to neutral and potentially positive as we push towards the latter parts of September however due to an active sun atm, the wild fluctuations will give a slight bias to the negative side.
The MJO is currently showing a weak pulse over the mainland. There is an expectation that this may kick on a little more into the Western Pacific given trade winds are already weaker there so less opposition for wind to weaken. As mentioned before, the WWB’s haven’t been very strong but this is the time of the year that may see some stronger pulses as we move into spring so we will need to pay close attention to the MJO.
Districts:
Eyre Peninsula
Light showers clearing during 5th as weak front moves into Victoria with a new ridge moving in behind quickly. High pressure system moves east on 6th with N winds freshening during the day allowing warmth to flux south. Strong cold front due late 6th and into 7th with a band of showers. Isolated thunderstorms possible along the frontal band. Pool of cold air aloft behind front on 7th moving in from SW with colder, fresh to strong SW to S winds bringing widespread showers, some locally heavy and squally with small hail. Isolated cold air thunder also possible. Sheep graziers warning expected due to the very cold winds and showers. New strong high moving in rapidly from west during 8th moderating cold southerly winds early and causing showers to become isolated and clear early in the day. Very cold and frosty nights to follow on 9th and 10th and even possibly on 8th in the west closer to the new high with temperatures down as low as –3C in some locations on the 9th. High becoming dominant in Tasman Sea in days after right through to mid-month however a weakening trough may slide in from WA after this with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the far west. Days becoming warmer from 12th-15th. Frost risk slight on 8th in far west and then moderate on 9th before back to slight to moderate on 10th throughout. Rainfall for period 7-12mm generally, with localised higher totals to 20mm about the Lower Eyre Peninsula. Totals decreasing with N and NE extent down to around 4-7mm about the far N and NE portions of the Peninsula.
Upper North
Light showers clearing during 5th as weak front moves into Victoria with a new ridge moving in behind quickly. High pressure system moves east on 6th with N winds freshening during the day allowing warmth to flux south. Strong cold front due early 7th with a band of showers. Isolated thunderstorms possible along the frontal band. Pool of cold air aloft behind front on 7th moving in from SW with colder, fresh to strong SW to S winds bringing widespread showers, some locally heavy and squally with small hail. Isolated cold air thunder also possible. Sheep graziers warning expected due to the very cold winds and showers. Showers becoming isolated in the evening in the north and east however increasing in the south and SW with streams likely to setup off the Spencer Gulf overnight 7th and into 8th with a focus into the ranges N/NE of about Port Pirie, especially around Melrose and Mt.Remarkable and up to the ranges just NE of Port Augusta. Possible light snow on Mt.Remarkable. New strong high moving in rapidly from west during 8th moderating cold southerly winds early and causing showers to become isolated and clear by the afternoon.
Very cold and frosty nights to follow on 9th and 10th and to a lesser degree on the 11th with temperatures down as low as –5C in some frost prone locations on the 9th. High becoming dominant in Tasman Sea in days after right through to mid-month however a weakening trough may slide in from WA after this with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the far west. Days becoming warmer from 12th-15th. Frost risk moderate on 9th-10th throughout with pockets of heavy frost, chiefly on 9th. Rainfall for period 8-15mm generally, with localised higher totals to 30mm about higher peaks near Melrose or where any streams form. Totals decreasing with N and NE extent down to around 4-8mm off the back side of the ranges and further N into the Flinders.
Lower North
Light showers clearing during 5th as weak front moves into Victoria with a new ridge moving in behind quickly. High pressure system moves east on 6th with N winds freshening during the day allowing warmth to flux south. Strong cold front due before dawn on 7th with a band of showers, possibly tending to rain. Isolated thunderstorms possible along the frontal band. Pool of cold air aloft behind front on 7th moving in from SW with colder, fresh to strong SW to S winds bringing widespread showers, some locally heavy and squally with small hail. Isolated cold air thunder also possible. Sheep graziers warning expected due to the very cold winds and showers. Showers becoming isolated in the evening in the very far NE however increasing elsewhere as the cold of coldest air moves through. Snow showers likely through higher terrain in and around Mt.Bryan.
New strong high moving in rapidly from west during 8th moderating cold southerly winds early and causing showers to become isolated and clear by the afternoon. Very cold and frosty nights to follow on 9th and 10th and to a lesser degree on the 11th with temperatures down as low as –4C in some frost prone locations on the 9th. High becoming dominant in Tasman Sea in days after right through to mid-month however a weakening trough may slide in from WA after this with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the far west. Days becoming warmer from 12th-15th. Frost risk moderate on 9th-10th throughout with possible pockets of heavy frost, chiefly on 9th. Rainfall for period 12-20mm generally, with localised higher totals to 25-30mm about higher terrain. Totals decreasing with N and NE extent down to around 5-8mm off the back side of the ranges.
Yorke Peninsula
Light showers clearing during 5th as weak front moves into Victoria with a new ridge moving in behind quickly. High pressure system moves east on 6th with N winds freshening during the day allowing warmth to flux south. Strong cold front due early hours of 7th with a band of showers. Isolated thunderstorms possible along the frontal band. Pool of cold air aloft behind front on 7th moving in from SW with colder, fresh to strong SW to S winds bringing widespread showers, some locally heavy and squally with small hail. Isolated cold air thunder also possible.
Sheep graziers warning expected due to the very cold winds and showers. Showers temporarily increasing during evening with core of cold air on 7th with a strong high moving in rapidly from west during 8th moderating cold southerly winds early and causing showers to become isolated and clear early in the day. Very cold and frosty nights to follow on 9th and 10th with temperatures down as low as –2C in some locations on the 9th in the north. High becoming dominant in Tasman Sea in days after right through to mid-month however a weakening trough may slide in from WA after this with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the far west. Days becoming warmer from 12th-15th. Frost risk moderate on 9th before back to slight to moderate on 10th chiefly in the north. Rainfall for period 10-20mm generally, with localised higher totals to 25mm about far N Yorke Pen near streams off the Spencer Gulf. Totals decreasing towards the east coast down to around 7-10mm.
Kangaroo Island
Light showers clearing during 5th as weak front moves into Victoria with a new ridge moving in behind quickly. High pressure system moves east on 6th with N winds freshening during the day allowing warmth to flux south. Strong cold front due just before midnight on 6th or early hours of 7th with a band of showers. Isolated thunderstorms possible along the frontal band. Pool of cold air aloft behind front on 7th moving in from SW with colder, fresh to strong SW to S winds bringing widespread showers, some locally heavy and squally with small hail. Isolated cold air thunder also possible. Sheep graziers warning expected due to the very cold winds and showers. Showers increasing temporarily during evening of 7th with core of cold air. New strong high moving in rapidly from west during 8th moderating cold southerly winds early and causing showers to become isolated and clear early in the day.
Cold and frosty nights to follow on 9th and possibly 10th with temperatures down as low as –1C in some locations on the 9th, chiefly in centre of the island. High becoming dominant in Tasman Sea in days after right through to mid-month however a weakening trough may slide in from WA after this with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the far west. Days becoming warmer from 12th-15th. Frost risk slight to moderate on 9th before back to slight on 10th in prone locations near centre of island. Rainfall for period 12-22mm generally, with localised higher totals to 25mm wherever heavier cores traverse. Localised lower pockets down to around 8-12mm.
Adelaide Plains
Light showers clearing during 5th as weak front moves into Victoria with a new ridge moving in behind quickly. High pressure system moves east on 6th with N winds freshening during the day allowing warmth to flux south. Strong cold front due early hours of 7th before dawn with a band of showers, possibly tending to rain. Isolated thunderstorms possible along the frontal band. Pool of cold air aloft behind front on 7th moving in from SW with colder, fresh to strong SW to S winds bringing widespread showers, some locally heavy and squally with small hail. Isolated cold air thunder also possible. Sheep graziers warning expected due to the very cold winds and showers.
Showers temp in rapidly from west during 8th moderating cold southerly winds early and causing showers to become isolated and clear later in the day. Very cold and frosty nights to follow on 9th and 10th with temperatures down as low as –2C in some locations on the 9th about the outer plains. High becoming dominant in Tasman Sea in days after right through to mid-month however a weakening trough may slide in from WA after this with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the far west. Days becoming warmer from 12th-15th. Frost risk moderate on 9th before back to slight to moderate on 10th chiefly about the northern suburbs and outer plains. Rainfall for period 15-25mm generally, with localised higher totals to 35mm about the foothills. Totals decreasing towards the western suburbs in the order of 10-15mm.
Mt.Lofty Ranges
Light showers clearing during 5th as weak front moves into Victoria with a new ridge moving in behind quickly. High pressure system moves east on 6th with N winds freshening during the day allowing warmth to flux south. Strong cold front due early hours of 7th before dawn with a band of showers, possibly tending to rain. Isolated thunderstorms possible along the frontal band. Pool of cold air aloft behind front on 7th moving in from SW with colder, fresh to strong SW to S winds bringing widespread showers, some locally heavy and squally with small hail. Isolated cold air thunder also possible. Sheep graziers warning expected due to the very cold winds and showers. Showers temporarily increasing during evening with core of cold air on 7th with a very slight chance of a snow shower on and around Mt.Lofty.
Strong high moving in rapidly from west during 8th moderating cold southerly winds during the day with scattered showers becoming isolated by the late afternoon and clearing during the evening. Very cold and frosty nights to follow on 9th and 10th with temperatures down as low as –3C in some locations on the 9th about the Barossa and low-lying valleys. High becoming dominant in Tasman Sea in days after right through to mid-month however a weakening trough may slide in from WA after this with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the far west. Days becoming warmer from 12th-15th. Frost risk moderate on 9th before back to slight to moderate on 10th chiefly about the Barossa. Rainfall for period 20-30mm generally, with localised higher totals to 40mm about higher peaks and known wet spots. Totals decreasing towards the east coast down to around 7-10mm.
Riverland/Mallee
Light showers about the SW Mallee clearing during 5th as weak front moves into Victoria with a new ridge moving in behind quickly. High pressure system moves east on 6th with N winds freshening during the day allowing warmth to flux south. Strong cold front due near or after sunrise on 7th with a band of showers. Isolated thunderstorms possible along the frontal band and also well ahead of front along pre-frontal trough in a higher based nature near or just over the VIC border over the Riverland. Pool of cold air aloft behind front on 7th moving in from SW with colder, fresh to strong SW to S winds bringing scattered showers, some squally with small hail. Isolated cold air thunder also possible.
Sheep graziers warning expected due to the very cold winds and showers. Showers becoming isolated and contracting to the southern Mallee during the early evening of 7th before temporarily increasing during evening with core of cold air on 7th. Strong high moving in rapidly from west during 8th moderating cold southerly winds throughout the day and causing showers to become isolated and clear later in the day. Small hail in showers still possible till later in the afternoon. Very cold and frosty nights to follow on 9th and 10th with temperatures down as low as –4C in some locations in the Riverland on the 9th. High becoming dominant in Tasman Sea in days after right through to mid-month however a weakening trough may slide in from WA after this with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the far west. Days becoming warmer from 12th-15th. Frost risk moderate on 9th and 10th with some pockets of heavy frost over the Riverland likely on the 9th. Rainfall for period 2-5mm over the Riverland generally. Isolated lower totals to less than 2mm. The Mallee should expect a general 7-15mm, with a decrease down to 3-7mm in the far N to NE. Local totals to 20mm potentially in the far S/SW.
Upper SE
Light showers clearing during 5th as weak front moves into Victoria with a new ridge moving in behind quickly. High pressure system moves east on 6th with N winds freshening during the day allowing warmth to flux south. Strong cold front due near or after sunrise on 7th with a band of showers, possibly tending to rain. Isolated thunderstorms possible along the frontal band. Pool of cold air aloft behind front on 7th moving in from SW with colder, fresh to strong SW to S winds bringing widespread showers, some squally with small hail. Isolated cold air thunder also possible. Sheep graziers warning expected due to the very cold winds and showers. Showers becoming isolated and contracting to the Coorong coast during the early evening of 7th before temporarily increasing and tending to rain during evening with core of cold air on 7th. Strong high moving in rapidly from west during 8th moderating cold southerly winds throughout the day and causing showers to become isolated and clear later in the day. Small hail in showers still possible till later in the afternoon.
Very cold and frosty nights to follow on 9th and 10th with temperatures down as low as –3C in some locations on the 9th. High becoming dominant in Tasman Sea in days after right through to mid-month however a weakening trough may slide in from WA after this with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the far west. Days becoming warmer from 12th-15th. Frost risk moderate on 9th and 10th. Rainfall for period generally 12-22mm with isolated heavier falls to 27mm near the Lower SE border. Totals decreasing to the far NE down to around 5-10mm.
Lower SE
Light showers clearing during 5th as weak front moves into Victoria with a new ridge moving in behind quickly. High pressure system moves east on 6th with N winds freshening during the day allowing warmth to flux south later. Strong cold front due near or after sunrise on 7th with a band of showers, possibly tending to rain. Isolated thunderstorms possible along the frontal band. Pool of cold air aloft behind front on 7th moving in from SW with colder, fresh to strong SW to S winds bringing widespread showers, some squally with small hail. Isolated cold air thunder also possible. Sheep graziers warning expected due to the very cold winds and showers. Showers becoming isolated and contracting to the coast during the early evening of 7th before temporarily increasing and turning to rain during evening with core of cold air on 7th. Strong high moving in rapidly from west during 8th moderating cold southerly winds throughout the day and causing showers to become isolated and clear later in the day.
Small hail in showers still possible till later in the afternoon. Very cold and frosty nights to follow on 9th and 10th with temperatures down as low as –2C in some locations on the 9th. High becoming dominant in Tasman Sea in days after right through to mid-month however a weakening trough may slide in from WA after this with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the far west. Days becoming warmer from 12th-15th. Frost risk slight to moderate on 9th and 10th. Rainfall for period generally 20-30mm with isolated heavier falls to 35mm. Totals decreasing to the far NE down to around 15-20mm.
Western VIC
Light showers during 5th with weakening front, chiefly over the SW District. High pressure system moves east on 6th with N winds freshening during the day allowing warmth to flux south later, chiefly about the Mallee and SA border. Strong cold front due late morning on 7th with a band of showers. Isolated thunderstorms possible along the frontal band and also well ahead of front along pre-frontal trough near or just after sunrise. Pool of cold air aloft behind front on 7th moving in from W with colder, fresh to strong W to SW winds bringing scattered showers, some squally with small hail. Isolated cold air thunder also possible. Sheep graziers warning expected due to the very cold winds and showers. Showers becoming isolated and contracting to the SW District during the early evening of 7th before temporarily increasing during the mid to later evening with core of cold air on 7th and into the very early hours of the 8th. Strong high moving in rapidly from west during 8th moderating cold southerly winds throughout the day and causing showers to become isolated and clear by the evening.
Small hail in showers still possible till later in the afternoon. Very cold and frosty nights to follow on 9th and 10th with temperatures down as low as –3C in some locations in the Mallee and Wimmera on the 9th. Slight frost also likely in far east of districts on 11th. High becoming dominant in Tasman Sea in days after right through to mid-month however a weakening trough may slide in from WA later in the period. Days becoming warmer from 12th-15th. Frost risk slight to moderate on 9th and 10th with some broader pockets of moderate frost over the Mallee and Wimmera likely on the 9th. Rainfall for period 2-5mm over the Mallee generally with 5-10mm over the Wimmera and finally 20-30mm over the SW District. Isolated higher falls to 15mm and 35mm over the Wimmera and SW District respectively.
Final Notes
- El Nino very slow progress but eventually should get there for the BoM criteria
- Positive IOD rapidly forming now and likely to further strengthen before peaking in October
- Cold outbreak 7th-8th with some handy rainfall but at a cost with very cold air aloft which will set up for frost
- Sheep graziers alert will be expected for cold, wet and windy conditions
- Widespread snap frost on 9th with high rapidly moving in with further frost on 10th testing new heads and flowers
- Watch for significant heat to develop over NW Australia later September with attempts to move SE
- Below average spring rainfall still expected with heatwave potential in November
- Increasing moisture from November as heat builds will fuel thunderstorms but higher based increasing fire risks from lightning
- Summer outlook is hot and dry (fairly average overall rainfall wise) with above average temperatures and more extreme high maximums however not as bad as some years in recent times
- 2024 autumn still looking like moisture will return as El Nino breaks down combined with very warm SST’s giving more confidence to better breaking rains next season
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Happy Farming and Cheers from The Weatherman
*Note – For interest only, all thoughts are of The Weatherman and may not be reproduced without my consent.
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