Quick Update SA Showers and thunderstorms March 14-16th 2022

                                            Quick Update SA Showers and thunderstorms March 14-16th 2022

G’Day all, very quick one today as I’m busy at work but that expected moisture explained from the March outlook associated with the westward moving trough has now begun to have an influence. We have seen some early morning/overnight showers and thunderstorms become active near the SA/NSW border and now with the presence of some more moisture and a weak surface trough are seeing afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms developing once again along an outflow boundary, chiefly over the Lower and Upper North (generally confined to the ranges) and also in greater numbers over the Flinders Ranges and NE Pastoral which I think will see the greatest activity both today the 14th and tomorrow the 15th. Isolated showers and thunderstorms should also develop down the eastern border into the Riverland and Mallee and also the Upper and Lower SE as moisture and instability is sufficient there on both days. I’d expect a little more westward movement of the activity tomorrow however closer to the Adelaide region at least and especially on the ranges and northern plains. Steering flow will be slack so expect intense rainfall under the storms with localised flash flooding – quick 30-40mm dumps are quite possible, potentially higher if repeat training can occur. But overall, fairly isolated activity and many areas will get less than 1-2mm or nothing at all!

Another trough will advance from the west of the state later on wed the 16th and bring with it an increase in wind shear aloft, which will favour some higher based isolated showers and thunderstorms through the evening but not a great deal at this stage.

So, in short, most activity will be east of the Murray and north of about Gawler and especially so over the Flinders/NE Pastoral and again closer to the NSW/VIC borders right down towards the Lower SE. Any locally convergent winds will enhance stronger storm formation so it will be a case of keep an eye on the sky and watch for the building Cumulus fields as the heat gets into the ground.

Happy Farming and Cheers from the Weatherman

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