Quick little tidbit on today

 Quick little tidbit on today:

Currently we have a weak surface trough over the east of the state as well as an upper trough slowly moving across the gulf areas. This upper trough will advance eastwards to be located over Adelaide by about 4:30pm. These two features will combine with an increase in low level moisture from the NE to generate afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms from convection, but generally north and east of Adelaide. The main focus I would suspect will be the NE Pastoral and Flinders Ranges, down through the Mid North where thunderstorms will have a little more grunt. The Riverland, Murraylands, Upper and Lower SE will also see activity though a little less significant in parts of the Upper and Lower SE than yesterday. Given a second weak trough over the Eyre Peninsula and the westward advection of moisture, I'd also expect development over the Eyre Pen and down the Yorke Pen as well, the latter assisted by seabreeze convergence. Closer to home, the morning sounding will reveal the most about the state of the atmosphere above Adelaide, but knowing these setups the main areas to look for quite late in the afternoon are similar areas to yesterday the outer N and NE suburbs for the most part and into the northern ranges and possible central Mt.Lofty Ranges as well. It usually takes good seabreeze convergence and balance to generate a thunderstorm over the southern ranges. Activity closer to home though will be isolated and weaker than the stronger thunderstorms much further north and east where instability and lift is greater. The western and moreso southern suburbs are most likely to remain fine although late outflow boundaries can throw a late shower out. All activity will be very slow moving due to the slack wind shear so locally heavy falls and flash flooding are likely under strong cores and even some hail in those bigger cells given the lapse rates. Later tomorrow, a faster moving trough with weak low embedded will extend from the west and bring with it an increase in wind shear with upper dynamics coming into play more. A messy band/area of mid-level showers and isolated thunderstorms is likely later in the afternoon and evening but not a lot in it, however watch the back edge of the line later in the evening for some fresh potentially thundery development. Image attached showing ACCESS-C 300hPa level with upper trough at 4:30pm local. Image source: Weatherwatch Met Centre.