Posts

May 2023 update SA

Image
  May 2023 update SA   *Forecast prepared between May 17 th -19th 2023   Review: G’Day everyone, I know some of you have been eager to receive the Mid-Month update and I do realise that 2 weeks is a long time between drinks so to speak at this critical time of the year. I should stress that when this becomes an official subscription-based business, I will be doing weekly instead of fortnightly updates to cut down the gaps as well as a lot more other content in between.  A few personal things have halted the progress of that happening sooner, but I still at least want to keep the current 2-week updates rolling for free in the meantime to maintain continuity and accountability through the period. Inconsistent updates won’t serve much of a purpose and things can quickly get out of hand if you take your eye off the weather.   Now so far this month we have seen a dominant area of high pressure move in with widespread frost and morning fog patches af...

May 2023 Outlook SA

Image
   May 2023 outlook SA   *Forecast prepared between May 1 st -4th 2023   Review:   G’Day everyone, I hope you are keeping well and have had a good Easter and April in general. May is now here and is no doubt a very important month in your seeding programs among other things and certainly a time when we all look to the heavens with a vested interest. Firstly, we will look back on April and all in all it turned out better than we initially expected which in a way is a double-edged sword. On the positive front, we managed to get some extra moisture into the soil ahead of temperatures and evaporation numbers dropping but on the negative side it also means the dry spell and downwelling period will be shifted 3-4 weeks into the future. We did see the early signs of significant high pressure through mid to late April with a block of 4-5 days from the 19 th to 23 rd where the pressure held up around 1029hPa which is quite a feat in April and an early h...

Quick Update SA Trough and cold front with rain/shower April 26th-29th 2023

Quick Update SA Trough and cold front with rain/showers April 26th-29th 2023 G’Day everyone, as promised a quick update before this next system. Now certainly since the April update, the overall vigour and northern penetration of the system has dropped off and we can thank the power of the Tasman high for that, with a firm ridge over the the top of the system deflecting it further south rather than some ridging cutting underneath it to lift it up. This will have a double edged impact however with the lead system becoming absorbed into the westerly belt quicker, it will then allow a second trough to sling up with an upper trough aloft with a bit more ease, as one goes down the back one comes up, rotating around a broader area of low pressure. Wednesday 26th A warm day for most districts with freshening N winds, tending warm to hot across the Northern Agricultural and inland portions of Eyre Peninsula up to the West Coast ahead of a trough and weakening cold front generating a band of ra...

April 2023 update SA

Image
April 2023 update SA *Forecast prepared between April 18th-20th 2023 Review: G’Day everyone, hope you are keeping well, and I trust that you all enjoyed a Happy and safe Easter with your family. But as much as it is a time to relax for some, many of you no doubt will have been busy out in the field getting ready for the growing season. So far, this month has been kind to us with the later than expected draining of the tropics really assisting in getting moisture into the ground without a lot of heat to remove it with a number of systems with different dynamics delivering a range of precipitation both from steady and soaking to intense and even some hail. The main systems so far began with a complex low with troughs and fronts subtending off of it on the 5th and 6th of April. The 6th especially saw some strong instability during the afternoon with a little extra heating than expected really taking advantage of the already impressive upper-level divergence, lift and steep lapse rates pre...